Stats are useful for putting together your batting lineup, as well as
assigning pitching roles.
Pick Your Player
By: Brad Revare
Baseball is a game of surprises and uncommon events. Imagine yourself as a
left fielder in the middle of an important baseball game. The inning begins
and as you take a few steps to the right to get the short stop out of your
line of sight. You size up the hitter currently scuffing his shoes in the
batter's box. You let out a few guffaws under your breath as you size him up.
This kid is playing? He must be a head shorter than everyone else on the
field. He could pass for your little brother.
You gleefully scoot in several large steps. You rationalize that if there is a
possibility this kid might get it out of the infield, it will be a lazy,
drooping pop fly, unworthy of you playing him from your normal position. Like
an amused spectator you watch the pitcher wind up and deliver the pitch. The
sharp ping of the aluminum bat snaps you out of your bemused state just in
time to see the ball whistle over your head and careen into the corner.
What happened? Isn't there some Newtonian Law of physics that prevents that
event from taking place? No, you just got fooled by your most trustworthy of
senses. Baseball is America's pastime for a reason. Illusions are present all
the time, just waiting to play tricks on you. No, this article is not
propaganda for laser eye surgery, but rather an article explaining why relying
on stats is much safer and more efficient than relying on what you see.
Using Stats To Pick Your Player
Sure, in general bigger players hit the ball farther and throw it harder, but
that's not always the case. How many times have you seen the second coming of
Baby Huey come up to bat, expecting him to hit the ball into the parking lot,
and watch him whiff three uncoordinated times, go back to the bench and pout,
like none other than Baby Huey? How many times have you seen some string bean
pitcher dial up the heat? Think Mike MacDougal or Leo Nunez (both KC Royals
players, can you see the hometown bias?).
This article is intended for coaches as well as players. As you progress
through the different levels of competitive baseball, more and more detailed
types of stats should become available. If not, find some hyper-obsessive dad
to do it (there is always at least one of them).
Stats, as previously mentioned in some of my other articles, can tell a lot
more than we give them credit for. For example, take the current struggle
going on in the front offices of Major League Baseball teams, where the
renaissance of stat-heads has lead to the questioning of grading prospects
solely on a few games of scouting and a physical projection and evaluation of
their bodies.
Deciphering Your Baseball Stats
In this article I can make my case for new statistical observations, and how
to include them in your games, which will help you get noticed by pro and
college scouts.
In the most basic terms, who cares if a player looks good if he can't play? If
a player looks like Jack Black yet somehow hits 40 HR, and gets on base 40% of
the time, who cares if he isn't an underwear model? But I digress.
Stats are useful for putting together your batting lineup, as well as
assigning pitching roles. Statistics can also be helpful in scouting reports
on other teams. While no one in their right mind would march into battle blind
as a bat, having a few peripheral statistics you've never heard of could give
you the advantage. Let's begin our discussion.
Disclaimer: There will be many statistical baseball terms thrown around in
this article, and if you are confused about the definition or how to calculate
these stats, you can find them in my previous articles, or you can Google
them.
Offense
Piecing Together The Batting Lineup
Let's assume that you have at least the raw stats at your disposal from the
current season, and any past seasons as well. We are not looking for highs or
lows, but rather trends that seem to permeate through the seasons.
Leadoff
The leadoff spot is somewhat of an enigma. Traditional advice tends to favor
using a speedy leadoff guy who could steal bases if he gets on. The quality of
speed is only useful if this person can get on.
So if you have a speed demon that is also an OBP demon, by all means stick him
in the first slot. But, in most cases, it is best to stick a player who can
draw walks and get on base, but really can't hit for power.
To Calculate OBP:
Hits:
Walks:
Hit-By-Pitch:
At Bats:
Sac Flys:
2nd & 5th
The spots 2nd and 5th should be filled with your second tier of best hitters
(spots 3 and 4 being first-tier). These are guys who might not be able to get
on base as well as the leadoff hitter, but should hit for more power or hit
frequently. Stats such as SLG% and OPS can be used to effectively designate
your 2nd and 5th hitters.
Singles:
Doubles:
Triples:
Home Runs:
At Bats:
Remember that your 2nd and 5th hitters are a sort of defense against your two
best hitters. Opposing pitchers should not be able to get past them quickly,
allowing them to pitch around your best hitters.
3rd & 4th
The 3rd and 4th spot are the most obvious positions to fill with your best
hitters. Both of these players should be excellent hitters, with a slight
emphasis on power for the clean up spot (4th). The 3rd hitter should be near
the top of the team in OPS, meaning he has an equally impressive OBP and SLG
percentage.
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While batting average is a moderately useful statistic, you should feel no
pressure to solely go by this statistic when choosing your best hitter. As for
the clean up spot, again we are looking at OPS, with SLG% taking paramount
concern. Your 4th hitter should also be the leader in Iso-Power (SLG%- BA%),
as this is a measure of just how well this player hits for power, in isolated
form.
6th & Up
After the 5th spot, there are a grab bag of strategies you can use. You can
mix and match, playing left/right handed match ups between the hitter and
pitcher, or you can just use a few more stats.
One great stat that can be used is Pitches Seen per Plate Appearance. This is
the total amount of pitches seen divided by the number of at-bats. Even if
your 6-9 batters don't hit for power, at least they can wear down the pitchers
with a high average of pitches seen per at-bat.
Or you can take their OPS percentages and place them in a descending fashion.
Creating The Pitching Picture
Pitching, unfortunately, is a lot harder to design than hitting. Working
around arm injuries, aberrations in the schedule and other nuisances can
destroy your perfectly crafted rotation and bullpen. First, let's discuss the
pitching rotation.
1st Starter
This is hands-down your best pitcher. He throws hard, strikes out a lot of
guys, walks few, and works fast, all over an extended amount of innings. Just
in case you can't tell whom this pitcher is by observing them (or you would
just rather go by the stats), here are a few measures that indicate your top
starter:
High K/BB ratio
High strikeouts, low walks and HR's
Best mechanics on team
Works efficiently, fast
Pitches find ways to miss bats
2nd & So On
From here it's simply ranking them in order of next best to worst. You can
decide this by looking at the aforementioned stats, or by looking at their
attitude, pitch repertoire, velocity, or other factors you deem necessary.
Depending on the number of games you play and their proximity to each other,
you should use your other starters interchangeably in the bullpen.
Closer/Main Reliever
Think of this person as a scaled down version of your number one starter. This
is a guy who is lights out in short situations.
He must be able to handle pressure well, and have an attitude suited towards
the situation. Low walk rates are a must as walking batters is the cardinal
sin of late inning relief.
Moderate to high rates of strikeouts and ground balls (when put in play) are
excellent attributes of a successful closer. Don't feel pressured into using
just one guy for this position.
As the season progresses keep looking at the statistics and the outcomes of
certain events for all pitchers, and you should find the right closer.
Conclusion
Hopefully this article helped clear up some misconceptions of slotting
baseball players in a lineup. This article can help coaches as well as players
trying to identify where their skills are best applied.
If you have any questions or comments, feel free to e-mail me at brevare@yahoo.com
or private message me on the new Athletes.com message boards, where my forum
name is "Silent_Impact".
Brad Revare
http://www.bodybuilding.com/fun/brad11.htm
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