The theory of probabilities in poker
By: Julia


The theory of probabilities is one of the most difficult
mathematical disciplines, gentlemen. Paradox, but thus acquire
its essence the child may also, so this essence is simple. It is
not so necessary for you to learn difficult mathematical formulas
to represent, about what there is a speech. It is enough to
familiarize with elements.

So, gentlemen, the basic and main in theory of probability, that
we should study, are parity of quantity of required cases to
their general quantity. What such case? Anything you like,
gentlemen, anything you like. A throw of a coin or playing slots.
One delivery of cards. And even giving to cats of a rat poison.
What is the total of cases? The total is that possible variants
by which experiment may be finished. For example, if you throw
playing craps it may drop out any of six sides upwards. Hence,
total of cases equally to six. And if you throw a coin it may
drop out upwards either one or another side, and total of cases
equally to two.

Wow! - You will tell. The cat, after absorption of a poison may
wash a muzzle and go to walk further, and can, as it is sad to
play in box; variants two, truly? (But it is not necessary to
carry out this experiment on a cat of the wife; after that there
is no guarantee, that it will be not lead on you, gentlemen). Not
absolutely so. Unless it is a mathematical cat. Actually, in a
reality two will not take place, and huge quantity of different
variants, starting from instant death without uniform meow and
down to heart-rending cat's shout together with dirty flat.

Therefore in the subsequent let's agree for convenience to
operate with the conditional objects always working in our
interests. Playing craps do not fall from a table, coins kindly
do not hang in air, and cats. cats or live, or die at once.
What is the quantity of required cases?

About, it is absolutely simple, gentlemen. This quantity of
those, cases, which we, shall tell, so, try to achieve from
experimental object. With a devil smile measuring a doze of
poison, we wish the unfortunate striped creature of death. And if
the cat fairly follows our arrangement a required case will be
one death of a cat.

If we want to throw out one side on a coin the quantity of
required cases will be equal to one. And if we want to throw out
on playing craps the five or the six the quantity of required
cases will be equal to two.

Now, having defined with concepts, we approach to the main thing
gentlemen, as the probability is determined. And it is very
simple as it was already mentioned, the attitude of required
cases to total. Considering death of our distressful mathematical
cat, we come to the following. The quantity of required variants
- death is equal to one.

The total of variants either will die, or will not die -
equally to two. Hence, the probability of purchase of the cat's
coffin (with brocade) is equal 1/2. Fifty percents. Only it is
necessary to remember, gentlemen, that a cat at us mathematical
and conditional, and that is easy to run into error of one known
student, which on a question of the professor: What is
probability of what today you will meet a dinosaur? - with
readiness responded: 1/2 or meet, or not.

If the quantity of possible variants coincides with quantity
required the parity, accordingly, is equaled to unit. It means,
that event will come absolutely precisely (mathematical). It is
more than unit this attitude, naturally, may not be. Required
cases can be chosen only from total of cases.

This formula of calculation of probability can be applied
practically to any event. If we still should throw out on playing
craps the five or the six the probability is events it will be
equal two to divide into six (total of sides), that is 1/3. What
this number means? This number, gentlemen, means, that on three
carried out experiments (throw craps) will have about one at
which will drop out five or six.

In practice, you may throw craps ten times and required figures
and will not turn to you pitted holes. You see, each subsequent
throw does not depend at all from previous. At playing craps
there is no memory, gentlemen.

But if to take big enough series of throws and to look, as the
five or the six then we and shall see that frequently dropped
out, that they dropped out approximately each third time.
Proceeding from this general rule, it is possible as
approximately to make forecasts and for the future throws. The
main thing to remember, that for each subsequent throw the
probability always remains identical and does not depend in any
way on the previous series though there ten times would drop out
one.

Translating conversation is closer to games, from this forecast
it is possible to take practical advantage. For example, it is
possible to calculate fair (unfair) rates at a bet. We admit your
comrade puts, that at a throw playing craps the number from one
up to four inclusive will drop out. You insist, that now the
long-awaited five or the six all the same will appear. Your
chances of success are equal 1/3. Chances of your comrade are
four to divide into six - 2/3.

Thus, of you it is fair to demand the appropriate rates
concerning to each other in the same proportion, as well as
probability - 1/3 to 2/3 or one to two. That is, you put ten
dollars, he - twenty. At such rates and long game hardly someone
will win much. About two throws you will to give on ten dollars,
and on the third to receive them back.

And if hardly to change a parity - to make his five dollars to
fifteen your comrade - gawk seriously may be lost at long game.
Why? Very simply, gentlemen. The parity of rates becomes one to
three while the parity of probabilities remains former - one to
two. A difference is in your advantage, gentlemen. Conditionally
speaking, on the first throw you give five dollars. On second
five more. And on third you receive back the lost ten, and earn
moreover five more dollars. But it is not necessary to do so. It
is bad.

Poker submits to the same laws. The theory of probabilities in
poker shows that at calculation of probability of occurrence of a
combination, it is necessary to divide total of required
combinations or all possible variants of this combination into
total of all in general possible combinations. But this subject
is worthy separate clause.

Also remember - too much frequently good luck breaks all
mathematical laws. We wish you good luck,
gentlemen! www.pokerbest.net


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